A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
